Peter de Jager has Quick(en) Solution for Y2K Failure

Peter de Jager has Quick(en) Solution for Y2K Failure

Post by Lane Core J » Tue, 20 Oct 1998 04:00:00



"Peter de Jager used a similar example at the SPG conference in San
Francisco. He asked, 'what would you do if you owned a small business and
all your mainframe programs died?' Do you just lock the doors? No, you run
down to the computer store and buy 50 copies of Quicken and you set up your
core functions again. You can be up and taking money in a few hours."


(http://www.cbn.org/y2k/insights.asp?file=981016d.htm)

[How well, for instance, does Quicken handle EDI transaction sets? (Does it
use FTP or SNA?) It doesn't? Well, what happens if 60% of your small
company's orders come in via EDI to your mainframes? Does Quicken have a
database of all your vendors, so you know where to send all the orders
you're getting in? It doesn't? Well, what happens if 75% of your orders are
fulfilled by independent suppliers to whom you autofax orders from your
mainframes? Oh, I see. Nothing happens. No money coming in, no money going
out: what, exactly, would there be for Quicken to do?

[I mean, if a small company's "core functions" could be done using Quicken
instead of "mainframe programs", um... well.. wouldn't they be doing it
that way NOW?

[When I read things like this--myopic, superficial pabulum--from a Y2K
"expert" who's making mucho big-bucks from speaking engagements all over
the world, it scares the hell out of me.

[What do the rest of you think about this?]

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I welcome e-mail replies. :) But I have no time for e-mail debates. :(
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 
 
 

Peter de Jager has Quick(en) Solution for Y2K Failure

Post by Lan-Lo » Wed, 21 Oct 1998 04:00:00



Quote:

> [How well, for instance, does Quicken handle EDI transaction sets? (Does it
> use FTP or SNA?) It doesn't? Well, what happens if 60% of your small
> company's orders come in via EDI to your mainframes? Does Quicken have a
> database of all your vendors, so you know where to send all the orders
> you're getting in? It doesn't? Well, what happens if 75% of your orders are
> fulfilled by independent suppliers to whom you autofax orders from your
> mainframes? Oh, I see. Nothing happens. No money coming in, no money going
> out: what, exactly, would there be for Quicken to do?

> [I mean, if a small company's "core functions" could be done using Quicken
> instead of "mainframe programs", um... well.. wouldn't they be doing it
> that way NOW?

What I think he was saying was that business is adaptable and not locked
into a specific device or software. "If this doesn't work then we'll try
that."

Yes, Quicken doesn't do EDI or FTP or SNA but it can be manually fed
manually manipulated. The idea is that things will be slower, harder,
less profitable, but there will be some processing happening.

I think THAT was the point.

--
"When the only tool you own is a hammer," noted
psychologist Abraham Maslow, "every problem begins to
resemble a nail."

 
 
 

Peter de Jager has Quick(en) Solution for Y2K Failure

Post by Robert Hollan » Wed, 21 Oct 1998 04:00:00





>> "Peter de Jager used a similar example at the SPG conference in San
>> Francisco. He asked, 'what would you do if you owned a small business and
>> all your mainframe programs died?' Do you just lock the doors? No, you
run
>> down to the computer store and buy 50 copies of Quicken and you set up
your
>> core functions again. You can be up and taking money in a few hours."

>> [What do the rest of you think about this?]

Right off the bat, the premise is bad.

I doubt many small businesses run their operation on mainframe computers.

Small businesses are not prime targets for big iron makers.

Quote:>de Jager has blinked.

Or maybe he has better information. After all this time, the DoomBrood
has failed to make their case, and has passed their high-water mark.

Quote:>There comes a point (or is coming a point) when all of those who have been
on
>the "fix or die" message (that's what Peter gave when I saw him in Toronto
in
>November of '96) are going to realize that it is not going to be fixed, and
>are going to have to face the implications of their own message.

>They only have 2 choices once they realize that it will not be done.
Either
>they and many are going into the collapse that they warned against in years
>past (i.e. their mission failed), or else it really wasn't that important
>after all, which is what we are seeing Peter saying now.

I have yet to hear of a system that *cannot* be fixed. Perhaps de Jager's
change of heart is founded on his realization that the many tens of
thousands
who are remediating worldwide have achieved some measure of success.

Quote:>When de Jager spoke to the House of Representatives in 1996, here's what he
>said about the deadline:

>"In the past, if we missed a delivery date, we could continue to use what
we
>used yesterday. When the Year 2000 arrives, the programs we used yesterday
>will be useless. Unless the applications are fixed and available on January
>1st, all businesses lose the ability to do business. I am at a loss as to
how
>to communicate that message any simpler. I will leave it to you to
>contemplate what happens to the world-wide economy if businesses lose the
>ability to do business"

>Remember that: "all businesses lose the ability to do business"  That was
>1996.

He was absolutely right. Good thing so many took his words to heart and
set about fixing their y2k problems.

Quote:>Today, all we need is 50 copies of Quicken.

Unplugging the mainframe is indeed one proven strategy for dealing with
y2k. Replacing it with an off-the-shelf alternative is not cost-prohibitive
these days.

Quote:>Yourdon saw the milne's flaming death train and moved to Taos.  de Jager
has
>seen, and he blinked.

>Y2K really wasn't all that important after all.

To the ignorant, it will seem like y2k was nothing to sweat over, but in
reality we all owe a debt of gratitude to the many persons who have
done their y2k work.

Robert Holland

 
 
 

Peter de Jager has Quick(en) Solution for Y2K Failure

Post by Bill Voj » Wed, 21 Oct 1998 04:00:00


: What I think he was saying was that business is adaptable and not locked
: into a specific device or software. "If this doesn't work then we'll try
: that."

: Yes, Quicken doesn't do EDI or FTP or SNA but it can be manually fed
: manually manipulated. The idea is that things will be slower, harder,
: less profitable, but there will be some processing happening.

I think your correct in your evaluation of what he meant, but there
are some applications that can't use off the shelf apps.

Can any off the shelf app control Con-Eds power generation plants?
And Quicken won't help any small business if the power is out.

Bill Vojak

 
 
 

Peter de Jager has Quick(en) Solution for Y2K Failure

Post by Moshe Shulm » Wed, 21 Oct 1998 04:00:00



>"Peter de Jager used a similar example at the SPG conference in San
>Francisco. He asked, 'what would you do if you owned a small business
and
>all your mainframe programs died?' Do you just lock the doors? No, you
run
>down to the computer store and buy 50 copies of Quicken and you set up
your
>core functions again. You can be up and taking money in a few hours."

>(http://www.cbn.org/y2k/insights.asp?file=981016d.htm)
>[How well, for instance, does Quicken handle EDI transaction sets?
(Does it
>use FTP or SNA?) It doesn't? Well, what happens if 60% of your small
>company's orders come in via EDI to your mainframes? Does Quicken have
a
>database of all your vendors, so you know where to send all the orders
>you're getting in? It doesn't? Well, what happens if 75% of your
orders are
>fulfilled by independent suppliers to whom you autofax orders from
your
>mainframes? Oh, I see. Nothing happens. No money coming in, no money
going
>out: what, exactly, would there be for Quicken to do?

I think you miss the point. If you have a computer then you can
manually do something with EDI. It is not so hard to read the EDI
data file. His point is that no one is going to just close his
business if it were possible to do anything to keep going.

--

Empire State Supply

 
 
 

Peter de Jager has Quick(en) Solution for Y2K Failure

Post by Lan-Lo » Wed, 21 Oct 1998 04:00:00




> : What I think he was saying was that business is adaptable and not locked
> : into a specific device or software. "If this doesn't work then we'll try
> : that."

> : Yes, Quicken doesn't do EDI or FTP or SNA but it can be manually fed
> : manually manipulated. The idea is that things will be slower, harder,
> : less profitable, but there will be some processing happening.

> I think your correct in your evaluation of what he meant, but there
> are some applications that can't use off the shelf apps.

> Can any off the shelf app control Con-Eds power generation plants?
> And Quicken won't help any small business if the power is out.

> Bill Vojak

My understanding of the incident was that de Jager was referring to small
business, not Fortune 500 companies. With that in mind, it makes much
more sense, doesn't it?

--
"When the only tool you own is a hammer," noted
psychologist Abraham Maslow, "every problem begins to
resemble a nail."

 
 
 

Peter de Jager has Quick(en) Solution for Y2K Failure

Post by Lan-Lo » Wed, 21 Oct 1998 04:00:00



dejanews.com says...



> > What I think he was saying was that business is adaptable and not locked
> > into a specific device or software. "If this doesn't work then we'll try
> > that."

> > Yes, Quicken doesn't do EDI or FTP or SNA but it can be manually fed
> > manually manipulated. The idea is that things will be slower, harder,
> > less profitable, but there will be some processing happening.

> > I think THAT was the point.

> yeah, that is the point and it's pretty unrealistic and actually not very
> rational thinking.

> I can't see how a corporation like Ford or GM could continue to exist like
> this. It's impossible. And "the idea is that things will be slower, harder,
> less profitable" in the American Business psyche means it's time to close up
> shop.

I think the incident was referring to small business and of you look at
in in that context it makes much more sense.

--
"When the only tool you own is a hammer," noted
psychologist Abraham Maslow, "every problem begins to
resemble a nail."

 
 
 

Peter de Jager has Quick(en) Solution for Y2K Failure

Post by Jo Anne Slave » Wed, 21 Oct 1998 04:00:00



> My understanding of the incident was that de Jager was referring to small
> business, not Fortune 500 companies. With that in mind, it makes much
> more sense, doesn't it?

The generally accepted definition of a small business is one which
employs fewer than 500 people.

Now, the place where my husband works (an engineering company) has
approx. 100 employees. Pretty small. I think they probably have 125
computers in the office - I know my husband has a couple. Everything
from the 486s in Word Processing to the monster brand-new AutoCad stuff
in the drafting department.

To keep it real simple, we'll just worry about one small piece of what
is done with these computers: project management. You know - billable
dollars spent working for each client. A *very* important aspect of the
engineering business. I don't know what kind of software is used by this
particular company for their project management, but I *do* know that
every last employee needs to use this software on a daily basis.

Without this software to track work done, everyone has to go back to the
hand-written timesheet system. You would have to hire (?) people to sort
stuff out and enter it into Excel spreadsheets or something. The
spreadsheet templates have to be set up. The billing rate for every
employee in the company has to be entered. The billing rates for
printing and computer time have to be set up. The hours worked by each
employee on each project have to be entered. (Some of the employees
often do work for 6 or 8 different clients in any given day.) Stuff from
accounts payable and petty cash has to be entered. Mileage for employees
has to be broken down.

Now, going to Future Shop and picking up 125 copies of Quicken (or
Simply Accounting, or MYOB, or whatever) isn't going to do these people
any good whatsoever, because off-the-shelf accounting software isn't
what they need. Can they get 125 copies of some compliant project
management software? How much does it cost? Does it work the same way as
the stuff they've been using, or will staff training be required? Will
it run on Windows 3.1? Will the computers in the Word Processing dep't
have to be replaced? How long will it take to have this new system up
and running?

This is just *one tiny piece of software* used by this company. Multiply
by 20, then tell me how long it will take to get information and money
flowing again just by running down the street and picking up new
compliant software.

Jo Anne

 
 
 

Peter de Jager has Quick(en) Solution for Y2K Failure

Post by Lane Core J » Thu, 22 Oct 1998 04:00:00


[to comp.software.year-2000]


following:

Quote:>What I think he was saying was that business is adaptable and not locked
>into a specific device or software. "If this doesn't work then we'll try
>that."

>Yes, Quicken doesn't do EDI or FTP or SNA but it can be manually fed
>manually manipulated. The idea is that things will be slower, harder,
>less profitable, but there will be some processing happening.

>I think THAT was the point.

Possibly.

But my point is, "if you don't have the mainframes (or minicomputers, or
whatever) to send/receive the EDI transactions, you won't have data to feed
into and/or get out of Quicken".

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I welcome e-mail replies. :) But I have no time for e-mail debates. :(
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 
 
 

Peter de Jager has Quick(en) Solution for Y2K Failure

Post by Lane Core J » Thu, 22 Oct 1998 04:00:00


[to comp.software.year-2000]


wrote the following:

Quote:>Right off the bat, the premise is bad.

>I doubt many small businesses run their operation on mainframe computers.
>Small businesses are not prime targets for big iron makers.

It depends on how one defines "small business". Some say it's a business
with fewer than 50 employees. (SBA?) Others say it's a business with fewer
than 2,500 employees. (Gartner Group?) Some define it by gross revenue.

I was interpreting "mainframe" generically as "non-desktop" (not a PC or
Mac). Like minicomputers such as a MicroVAX. It is not at all unrealistic
for a small business, however it is defined, to depend heavily on a
MicroVAX for much of its data processing.

Quote:>Unplugging the mainframe is indeed one proven strategy for dealing with
>y2k. Replacing it with an off-the-shelf alternative is not cost-prohibitive
>these days.

Could we go back to my original scenario?

Is there an off-the-shelf PC app that does EDI? (ANSI transaction sets, to
keep it simple.) You know: communications, transaction-set parsing,
back-end processing, etc.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I welcome e-mail replies. :) But I have no time for e-mail debates. :(
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 
 
 

Peter de Jager has Quick(en) Solution for Y2K Failure

Post by A.V. » Fri, 23 Oct 1998 04:00:00



> I can't see how a corporation like Ford or GM could continue to exist like
> this. It's impossible. And "the idea is that things will be slower, harder,
> less profitable" in the American Business psyche means it's time to close up
> shop.

he was taling about SMALL business. the ford's and the GM's of the world
have the resource to remediate their, customized/proprietary systems.
 
 
 

1. Peter de Jager's smooth Y2K transition

In yesterday's Yahoo Tech Headlines titled:

               "Internet Web Address Sold for $10M"

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20000102/tc/y2k_domain_name_3.html

The sale is still pending but that's a pretty nice transition into Y2K
should the sale go through for a Y2K guru. Wonder if Gary North has
something up his sleeve too...

Peter

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Sent via Deja.com http://www.deja.com/
Before you buy.

2. Analog Compass on the MC68HC11

3. "Peter de Jager, Y2K, and the real threat to liberty" :SELF-CENSORSHIP!!

4. new books

5. Scientific American - Y2K article by Peter de Jager

6. MAIL ORDER PC PUBLISHING

7. LIVE Internet Broadcast with Peter de Jager

8. To print or not to PRINT

9. Peter de Jager on Y2Knews Radio Today (08/05/1999)

10. From Peter de Jager

11. Ending speculation on Peter de Jager's apparent change of mind

12. Doomsday Avoided by Peter de Jager