> :> A couple of points. First we don't seem to have enough replies for a
> :>valid sample. Second we don't have enough replies from people with
> :>a few years of experience. Is this NG dominated by people with lots of
> :>experience? Are there hordes of lurkers? If you have only a year or
> :>two of experience, or none at all, please speak up. I would truly like
> :>to know what you think.
> :> JR
> I'm a none-at-all-experience lurker.
> I came to this NG when it first opened because it looked to
> be a good place to learn about the problem. I became a
> dedicated lurker when I discovered it satisfied that morbid
> curiousity that attracts people to train wrecks.
> I can only see two possibilities: Minor Inconvenience (1.5)
> or Catastrophe (so close to 5 let's just call it a 5).
> The problem with this problem is that nobody really knows
> for certain WHAT is going to happen. This uncertainty that
> makes the problem even more severe. If the general
> population does not know what to expect when things start to
> go bad, there's a very good chance that there will be
> widespread panic. And since the Bad Things will have
> happened to the people and agencies that are responsible for
> preventing and controlling widespread panic....
> Worst Case: 14th Century Europe ... on a global scale.
The four*th century was a remarkable but tragic period, a time of
troubles with historical and astrological parallels to our own. <See: 'A
Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century,' by Barbara W. Tuchman, 1978,
Alfred A. Knopf>
I'm not an astrologer, but the Saturn-Uranus-Neptune conjunction of 1307 is
considered to be the astrological event that presaged a century of woe.
It was characterized by unenlightened leadership, exorbitant taxation, the
breakdown of social institutions, immorality, religious ferment and
persecution (including the slaughter of Jews), destruction of farms and
villages by bands of marauding mercenaries, peasant uprisings and anarchy.
What is known as the Little Ice Age, a period of extreme cold, began about
1307 and lasted until about 1700. Famine devastated Europe in 1315-1316 as
a shorter growing season and incessant rains caused crops to fail. People
were reduced to eating dead bodies, in some cases even their own children.
Corruption in the Church reached new levels as Pope Clement V removed the
papacy from Rome to Avignon, France in 1309. The Hundred Years War between
France and England broke out in 1337 and the expansion of the Ottoman
Empire into Europe began in 1345.
And, of course, there was the bubonic plague, which from 1347 to 1351 wiped
out as much as half the population of England and at least one-third of the
population of Europe.
Saturn-Uranus-Neptune conjunctions are extremely rare and are considered to
be a _very_ bad portent. Between 1988 and 1993, there occured multiple
conjunctions of these three planets: Saturn-Uranus, Saturn-Neptune and
Uranus-Neptune, as well as a Saturn-Neptune-Uranus-Mars conjunction on Feb.
However, in a universe of free will, nothing is inevitable.
There is coming a time of severe "testing," possibly triggered by Y2K
failures, but I believe that what comes to pass will be ameliorated or
intensified by the state of humanity's consciousness. If we are prepared
to deal with massive system failures, we'll be OK and most of us will
survive. If not, then not as many will survive.
David: Severity 3.5 - 4.5; Experience: not a computer professional, butQuote:> Cory: Severity 4; Experience 29 years.
> Where 4 means,
> 2 months of rice and dried beans, just in case.
> a gallon of bleach
> 2 KW generator and 20 gallons of fuel, just in case.
> renew ham license. Get rig out of ba*t.
> a couple grand in 20's.
> couple month's of prescription meds.
> firewood (it'll be winter but winter can be mild)
> Only 25% in stock, mutual funds, bonds. 75% in CDs, savings.
FWIW, can program some in COBOL & C++.
In today's complex "infrastructure," a good-sized bump in the economic road
could cause more than a few months' inconvenience. In some areas, it may
mean gang rule, martial law, summary executions, famine, plague -- oh,
wait...that's what DC is like now, yes?
Seriously, it would be wise to have a two-years supply of non-perishable
food and a fairly reliable way to cook it without electricity or piped-in
gas; all of Cory's suggestions; and a twenty-pound bag of silver (dimes,
quarters...), some gold, some weapons -- and be ready to move other paper
assets to useful or traditional things ( diamonds, gasoline, shoes... )
Nah, it's not gonna happen. We'll all be OK. Right?
God, guns, gold and grub. Keep 'em all close & handy.