Realistic model of NC usage

Realistic model of NC usage

Post by Shelton Garn » Fri, 31 Jul 1998 04:00:00






>> People are willing to "pay a toll" to the "banker" for cable TV.
<snip>
>> Now sure, there is an alternative model which would be that the user pays
>> each time they access Photoshop. My guess is that no-one is particularly
>> thrilled with this model, so offering it up as a strawman proves nothing.
>> There may be (and given the way these things work, probably will be)
>> "platinum service" costing say $40 a month, that allows for use of
>> Photoshop, while the base service only gives you the use of "Photoshop LE"
>> or whatever. There may be (like from the phone world" a middling option
>> that allows for up to 10 uses (or hours of use or whatever) of the
>> platinum services apps.

>Considering that most home users get all the basic software they need
>"free" with their system and most commercial users get huge discounts to buy a
>"site" license, that $25 - $40 per month plus the cost of the NC
>will soon equal much more than the cost of a windows system (or even a
>mac for that matter).  In addition, the home user will need a huge pipe for
>it to even work somewhat as well as a windows system.  If the phone
>companies and the cable folks have their way, that fat pipe will cost
>at least another $40 per month.  With a PC, folks don't have to have
>a pipe at all if they don't want it.

As ideas like Sprint's recently announced "ION" have suggested, the
future of highspeed Net access is on-demand metered bandwidth. Once
highspeed bandwidth becomes like electricity then some of the
objections you raise become moot.

Quote:>The pay per use model will never work.  People don't like the "surprise"
>when the bill arrives.  Why do you think the ISP went to flat pricing?
>Why do you think the phone companies provide 911 blocking - it's cheaper

<snip>

Funny you should mention the phone company. If people dislike the
"surprise" of metered usaged, how come they're will to do it be
shocked month after month, year after year whenever their phone or
electricity bill comes?

Quote:>Once home users and commercial run the economic sceanrios, they will
>probably choose a cheap PC in most cases.

Now, maybe, but in the future they'll go with the cheap NC running
Linux machine from Newco.

lee

L. Shelton Bumgarner -- Keeper of the Great Renaming FAQ
Nattering Nabob of Narcissism * http://www.nottowayez.net/~leebum/
ICQ#: 9393354 * "Given two unrelated technical terms, an Internet
search engine will retrieve only resumes." -- Schachter's Hypothesis  

 
 
 

Realistic model of NC usage

Post by Shelton Garn » Fri, 31 Jul 1998 04:00:00




>In article


>> In some cases, the information *will* cost.  For example, I pay to
>> access Consumer Union's web site (the good stuff), but it is my option
>> to do so.  The idea of an NC accessing information and the user paying
>> a "toll" to the "banker" for each use of a word processing program is
>> not one that will sell at all, I'm afraid.  (At least it hasn't
>> exactly turned the world upside down to date.  Even Larry Ellison, the
>> disciple of NC has been conspicuously absent from the airwaves of
>> late.)  If it ever does happen, you'll see typewriters make a big
>> comeback. <g>

>And you say this based on what?
>People are willing to "pay a toll" to the "banker" for cable TV.

>I am not saying this will be the model, but let's suppose TCI goes into
>the NC business. Let's say you're connected by a very fast pipe, have fast
>internet access AND you can use any of the apps you want in their
>library---all for the price of $25 a month. They in turn keep tabs on app
>usage and based on that usage (like advertizing in TV) send some number of
>dollars each month to the vendors. That strikes me as a pretty compelling
>user scenario---and a not uncompelling scenario for the software vendors.

That's why I think "convergence" of TV/Net into a "full service
network" is the biggest problem Microsloth has in the comming years.
Once pulling stuff off a Webserver is as easy as pulling something off
your harddrive, one isn't as tied to one particular OS as they are
now.

In fact, I strongly believe the next Bill-Gates-size forture to be
made in the computer business will come to be after broadband is taken
for granted and lowcost NCs that do One Specific Thing become
widespred.

And I, for one, believe most of them will be running Linux. Linux is
the perfect OS for NCs because if they do Only One Thing, then you
really don't need a GUI. You just bootup your affordable
Wordprocessor/Webbrowser and start doing whatever it is you want to
do. Also, if they're running something like Linux, they'll be so
stable you won't feel compelled to buy a new one ever year.

Quote:>Now sure, there is an alternative model which would be that the user pays
>each time they access Photoshop. My guess is that no-one is particularly
>thrilled with this model, so offering it up as a strawman proves nothing.
>There may be (and given the way these things work, probably will be)
>"platinum service" costing say $40 a month, that allows for use of
>Photoshop, while the base service only gives you the use of "Photoshop LE"
>or whatever. There may be (like from the phone world" a middling option
>that allows for up to 10 uses (or hours of use or whatever) of the
>platinum services apps.

>And of course there are worrying things about this model in terms of the
>gatekeepers---what if Adobe pays a tone of money to ensure that
>NewCompany's new image processing app never gets onto the server.
>However those are a different set of issues which have nothing to do with
>whether or not this model is attractive to consumers.

A lot of how successful these types of things are will rest on the
price. If the overhead for metering comes down enough that they can
charge each individual use in micropayments (50 cents or less) then
they'll go gangbusters.

lee

L. Shelton Bumgarner -- Keeper of the Great Renaming FAQ
Nattering Nabob of Narcissism * http://www.nottowayez.net/~leebum/
ICQ#: 9393354 * "Given two unrelated technical terms, an Internet
search engine will retrieve only resumes." -- Schachter's Hypothesis  

 
 
 

Realistic model of NC usage

Post by Shelton Garn » Fri, 31 Jul 1998 04:00:00





<snip>
>: Once home users and commercial run the economic sceanrios, they will
>: probably choose a cheap PC in most cases.

>The "cheap PC" isn't so cheap when the built-in obsolescence means that
>it becomes hopelessly incompatible within at least a year and all the
>hardware and software has to be bought over and over again... the
>current paradigm. I don't believe families are ready to make big ticket
>computing a constantly recurring budget expense - just where is all the
>income for this supposed to come from when things like health insurance
>consume more and more? There is a saturation point that is being reached
>after the mass of consumers have bought their first big ticket system,
>and find out that it's not one-time, but constant annual expenditure.
>Other economic models become very competitive. Look how automobiles are
>leasd now rather than owned.

Exactly. If NetPCs running Linux became popular they would truly put a
dent in PC sales (although I still think PC makers should promote
NetPCs/NCs because their widespred use would allow them to keep PCs at
at least the 1K level.)

lee

L. Shelton Bumgarner -- Keeper of the Great Renaming FAQ
Nattering Nabob of Narcissism * http://www.nottowayez.net/~leebum/
ICQ#: 9393354 * "Given two unrelated technical terms, an Internet
search engine will retrieve only resumes." -- Schachter's Hypothesis  

 
 
 

Realistic model of NC usage

Post by Shelton Garn » Fri, 31 Jul 1998 04:00:00





>Sloman See text for reply address) expounded:

>[snip]

>>So although the "expert" computer users will always prefer to have their
>>own PC or workstation and look after themselves, the chances are that
>>there's a far greater number of users who will be prepared to pay for
>>access to a remotely managed service via a relatively simple network
>>computer.

>I suspect there will be a significant enough number of these to make
>NCs viable in the home.  I do not believe they will replace PCs as
>Ellison envisions.

>BTW, we have somewhat an experiment along those lines running right
>now.  It's called WebTV.  It hasn't exactly been a smashing success.
>The complaints I've heard have primarily revolved around resolution of
>the graphics and being locked in to one access provider.  Time will
>tell if it's a viable commercial alternative to the PC in the home.

The WebTV idea is all wrong. Maybe because it's just harder to build
than a WebTV box, but a Internet Appliance (smartphone) that allowed
you to JUST access the Net and do wordproccessing would go
gangbusters. Questions remain, however, as to whether smartphones will
be running WinCE or Linux.

lee
or AmigaOS 8->

L. Shelton Bumgarner -- Keeper of the Great Renaming FAQ
Nattering Nabob of Narcissism * http://www.nottowayez.net/~leebum/
ICQ#: 9393354 * "Given two unrelated technical terms, an Internet
search engine will retrieve only resumes." -- Schachter's Hypothesis  

 
 
 

Realistic model of NC usage

Post by Richard Bradbu » Tue, 04 Aug 1998 04:00:00



>Linux is
>the perfect OS for NCs because if they do Only One Thing, then you
>really don't need a GUI. You just bootup your affordable
>Wordprocessor/Webbrowser and start doing whatever it is you want to
>do.

I don't want to wait two minutes for my NC to boot up each time it
crashes...  In fact, I don't want any moving parts - not even a disk
or a fan.  If it doesn't have a cool CPU and a ROM-based OS, it's not
going to work as a consumer product.

If you can get a Linux kernel and a root partition into a ROM, you
might have a workable solution.  But not with an Intel-designed CPU
'cos they're just too damn hot!  Go for StrongARM: you know it makes
sense :-)

--
Richard.

 
 
 

Realistic model of NC usage

Post by William Gallafen » Tue, 04 Aug 1998 04:00:00





> > Linux is the perfect OS for NCs because if they do Only One Thing,
> > then you really don't need a GUI. You just bootup your affordable
> > Wordprocessor/Webbrowser and start doing whatever it is you want
> > to do.

> I don't want to wait two minutes for my NC to boot up each time it
> crashes...  In fact, I don't want any moving parts - not even a disk

Thing is, running Linux on the NC means it wouldn't crash anyway ;)

Quote:> or a fan.  If it doesn't have a cool CPU and a ROM-based OS, it's
> not going to work as a consumer product.

Certainly, one of the nice things about the ARM based NCs is *no*fan*
!!! For a computer user the noise of the fan (and HardDiscs, CD drives
etc spinning) is part of the package, but a consumer device should be
silent - or as close as possible. Having a big fan on the Power supply
and another on the CPU is not conducive to this!

Quote:> If you can get a Linux kernel and a root partition into a ROM, you
> might have a workable solution.  But not with an Intel-designed CPU
> 'cos they're just too damn hot!  Go for StrongARM: you know it makes
> sense :-)

I like the look of the Corel Linux/ARM NCs - only thing is, where can
I get one of these 275MHz StrongARMs for my RiscPC? :)

Cheers,

--
Bill Gallafent