> Probably not within ten years. Microsoft's * will most likely
> be bounded on the outside by Gates' control of the company. When he
> retires or loses control they'll lose their vision, and things should
> coast for awhile and then start to fall apart within ten or fif*
> years.
theory usually draws incredulous reactions, but personally I see it
coming. Linux, specifically is a big threat to MS. Not right now but
five to ten years from now.
The momentum is slowly building like a barely noticeable undercurrent:
Linux 'plug-and-play' distributions are on their way, several office
suites are already available, most useful Win 3.1 apps run under WABI,
the best games (Doom, Quake) run natively.
Further, any serious computer user who does a little programming and
tries Linux usually never comes back to MS and becomes an advocate (like
me right now). It's not that MS software is inherently bad, it's just
that it is no match against the quality, diversity and power of modern
(and free) Unix tools.
This is Internet Time, MS is like a chess player always one move late.
It simply cannot catch-up at this point. MS will still have a
significant applications business but will progressively decline as an
OS provider.
Gates' problem is greed, too much greed, too obvious. Linux is the
opposite, it is all about sharing and spreading knowledge and power to
the common man, just for the sake of it. No more assassinated Mozarts
with the Internet and Linux: anybody from anywhere with abilities can
contribute. A really smart move on MS's part would be to ditch their
hopelessly lame OSes and start putting together a Linux distribution.
Linux is deeply political, it goes much beyond computing. No business
will ever achieve the level of commitment and collaboration going on
right now in the free software world.
--
Louis-David Mitterrand
(Formula 1): http://www.veryComputer.com/
(Java page): http://www.veryComputer.com/