Very Computer

*server* growth, yes, but where is Linux on the desktop?

Pete Goodwin, on Red Hat 8.0

In comp.os.linux.advocacy, Pete Goodwin

 wrote
on Wed, 20 Nov 2002 17:38:57 GMT

1% and more or less holding steady.

http://www.google.com/press/zeitgeist/zeitgeist-step02.html

(For some reason the October variant does not have the
OS breakdown.)

--

It's still legal to go .sigless.

Quote:>>> The rabid behavior of the Linux haters fails to dent Linux. Linux-based
>>> IA-32 shipments grew more than 50% last year. IA-32 based Linux based
>>> server revenue grew from $170 million to $220 million.

http://www.crn.com/Sections/BreakingNews/dailyarchives.asp?ArticleID=...

Quote:

>> *server* growth, yes, but where is Linux on the desktop?

>> Pete Goodwin, on Red Hat 8.0

> 1% and more or less holding steady.

> http://www.google.com/press/zeitgeist/zeitgeist-step02.html

> (For some reason the October variant does not have the
> OS breakdown.)

1% is not much of the market. That it isn't growing is interesting. So Linux
appears to be lacking somehow on the desktop.

--
Pete Goodwin, using Red Hat 8.0

http://www.crn.com/Sections/BreakingNews/dailyarchives.asp?ArticleID=...

Quote:

>>> *server* growth, yes, but where is Linux on the desktop?

>>> Pete Goodwin, on Red Hat 8.0

>> 1% and more or less holding steady.

>> http://www.google.com/press/zeitgeist/zeitgeist-step02.html

>> (For some reason the October variant does not have the
>> OS breakdown.)

> 1% is not much of the market. That it isn't growing is interesting. So
> Linux appears to be lacking somehow on the desktop.

I find it far more interesting that you still put any value into these
numbers. Seem to suite your purposes rather well, although by now you
should know fairly well that these numbers are meaningless

--
Try to be the best of whatever you are, even if what you are is
no good.

I've seen that number before, but it can't possibly be right. If the average
server sold for $2500, that would be well under 100,000 servers. I'm
reasonably sure that the Intel server market is at least several million
units per year (anyone have a reputable number?). I'd be willing to believe
that Windows has a majority, but it's hard to believe it's that lopsided. If
it is, Linux is dead.

-- Mike --

I'm not so sure about that.  Remember, these are SERVERS and not desktop
units.  The number of servers should be proprotionally much smaller...not
to mention, in the server market, there are TONS of non-Intel solutions to
look at as well.

Greg

In comp.os.linux.advocacy, Peter K?hlmann

 wrote
on Thu, 21 Nov 2002 09:43:49 +0100

[and someone snipped the attributions again]

Quote:>>>>> The rabid behavior of the Linux haters fails to dent Linux.
>>>>> Linux-based IA-32 shipments grew more than 50% last year. IA-32 based
>>>>> Linux based server revenue grew from $170 million to $220 million.

> http://www.veryComputer.com/

>>>> *server* growth, yes, but where is Linux on the desktop?

>>>> Pete Goodwin, on Red Hat 8.0

>>> 1% and more or less holding steady.

>>> http://www.veryComputer.com/

>>> (For some reason the October variant does not have the
>>> OS breakdown.)

>> 1% is not much of the market. That it isn't growing is interesting. So
>> Linux appears to be lacking somehow on the desktop.

> I find it far more interesting that you still put any value into these
> numbers. Seem to suite your purposes rather well, although by now you
> should know fairly well that these numbers are meaningless

I do wonder how to get meaningful usage numbers for
a system that is so "stealthy". :-)  At best, though,
it appears Linux is a wildcard player on the desktop --
presumably the reverse of Microsoft's situation, where
Microsoft might have tried to leverage their desktop
* to gain a foothold in the server maket, Linux
has a lesser * in the server market and trying to
gain a toehold on the desktop.

And it's succeeding, to some extent -- just rather slowly.

--

It's still legal to go .sigless.

    I think this is too conservative:

|   Linkname: IT-Analysis.com - Low cost server market booming
|        URL: http://www.it-analysis.com/article.php?id=2736
|
|   This is the kick-start the industry needs and will drive the Intel
|   server market to $5 billion by the end of 2003. This momentum will
|   continue to build throughout the coming years driving compound
|   annual growth of 3% across the industry until 2006. By this time
|   the market will sizeable too. IDC estimates that by 2006 potential
|   worldwide server revenues will be a whopping $63.4 billion. That's an
|   opportunity the hardware vendors need right now.
|
|   As IDC notes, the low cost Intel servers, particularly those found
|   in the blade server market, are gaining ground for the industry as a
|   whole. The opportunity to grab low cost power is far more appealing for
|   buyers today than spending on an expensive UNIX box. This is giving
|   Linux quite an opportunity too, with IDC saying it is driving growth
|   into the low-cost server marketplace.

    Another analyst has stated, I temporarily lost the link, that 80%
    of all servers are under $25,000.00 but 65% of the revenue comes
    from the 20% at the top.

    Expect the percentage to shift even further as AMD 64-bit chips begin
    taking slots and Intel drops prices to head that off.

    We will see lots of 2 and 4 CPU boxes which "analysts" will still
    list as servers become cheap enough to be used as common desktops.
    Gamers will lead the charge.  64-bit servers will be the norm by
    the end of 2004 with lots of them as desktops even.

    Unix vendors, Sun and HP in particular, will not have good times
    because the more powerful chips will have Linux eating away at
    that 20% high end where they get most of their revenue.

    Since hardly anybody will want to pay MS license fees for a
    multi-64-bit-CPU box many will get Linux installed in the homes
    of what MS marketing refers to as "elites", they are the ones who
    guide the purchases of friends, family, and small companies.

    MS will begin _paying people_ to take copies, suitably crippled,
    of their, formerly, server versions home to slow the inevitable.

    The boom started next year may even be referred to as "the Linux
    DOT COM frenzy".

    Some of the Wintrolls have complained of hype already.  They have
    only seen the tip of the iceberg.  When the major marketing houses
    begin pushing even advocates may begin screaming for silence.

--
"But, killing me makes no sense !"

"It never makes sense to the one being killed."