>I'm wondering the same thing about computers. The 333 MHz PC is about the
>hottest Windows machine you can get at a Fry's or CompUSA, yet I hear that in 2
>years, 1000 Mhz machines will be available, and the the 200 MHz machines of
>just last year won't be fast enough for the software that will come out in
>2000. So in 3 years, you go from $2000 computer to obsolete. Will consumers
>stand for that?
I agree with you on this. But it's already been going on for about 9 years now.
In 1989 it was the "386", with the 33MHz being the top speed you could
achieve, at a nice hefty price. However, a lot of software still ran on those
In 1991 it was the 486, with the 33MHz being the top speed you could achieve,
at a nice hefty price, but most software would still run on the 386's. Windows
3.1 was released.
In 1993 the Pentiums came - 66MHz top speed, 386's were out-dated, 486's
slower then 50MHz were starting to get outdated.
In 1995 the 100+ MHz pentiums started to show up (up to 133MHz), in
August 1995 486's were made obsolete. Windows 95 was released.
Now, you need a minimum of Pentium 133MHz to get any useability, and a lot of
software won't run on anything slower then a 166MHz Pentium. By the end of
1998 you'll need to have a minimum of 200-233MHz Pentium with MMX. Windows 98
should be released this year.
Personally, I believe consumers will get tired of having to shell out several
thousand every couple of years.
I expect after the turn of the century you won't see major performance
increases in CPU speed, but then bandwidth will become the big improvement
factor. I also expect to see more happen with NC's as bandwidth increases.
The really sad thing is I think about what I used to use my Atari 800XL for
back in 1984; word-processing, e-mail, games, programming. It served me well
from 1983 until I jumped onto the PC Bandwagon in 1989. I could still use it
today (and am in the process of putting together another 8-bit system, anyone
got an MIO for sale?), and it would work well. However, the thought of using
my first PC (a 10MHz 8086) scares me, where the atari would be fine.
Offering scuba instruction from Openwater through Trimix
it's ken at condor dot circa dot ufl dot edu.